Climate - Elect Karlock to House District 45

US Government Report on Climate Model Accuracy:

Other aspects of the tropical simulations in current models remain inadequate. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a feature of the tropics in which precipitation is organized by large-scale eastward-propagating features with periods of roughly 30 to 60 days, is a useful test of simulation credibility. Model performance using this measure is still unsatisfactory. The “double ITCZ–cold tongue bias,” in which water is excessively cold near the equator and precipitation splits artificially into two zones straddling the equator, remains as a persistent bias in current coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Projections of tropical climate change are affected adversely by these deficiencies in simulations of the organization of tropical convection. Models typically overpredict light precipitation and underpredict heavy precipitation in both the tropics and middle latitudes, creating potential biases when studying extreme events. Tropical cyclones are poorly resolved by the current generation of global models, but recent results with high-resolution atmosphere-only models and dynamical downscaling provide optimism that the simulation of tropical cyclone climatology will advance rapidly in coming years, as will our understanding of observed variations and trends .  
Climate Models An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations, page 4 (Bold added)

”Some people will do anything to save the environment, except take a science class” (After PJ O’Rourke)

AGW hypothesis; Any hypothesis is only as valid as its assumptions.

AGW Assumptions;
1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas that slows the rate of heat escape from the atmosphere.
2. An increase in CO2 will cause global temperatures to rise.
3. CO2 levels will increase because of increased human additions to the atmosphere.
4. Temperatures can only increase.

Falsifications;
1. It is generally conceded that CO2 is a minor part of the total greenhouse effect and slows the rate of escape of heat. However, the IPCC essentially ignores the effects of water vapor except as it provides a positive feedback for the increase in temperature due to human produced CO2.
2. There is no record of any duration for any time period in which CO2 precedes a temperature increase. This alone is sufficient to reject the hypothesis.
3. Estimates of the amount of human CO2 added to the atmosphere are within the error factor of the estimates of at least three components of the sources of natural carbon to the atmosphere.
4. By attributing warming with 90% certainty to human CO2 the IPCC, major proponents of the AGW hypothesis, have effectively excluded cooling. CO2 will rise and therefore temperatures must rise. They have not since 2000 AD. An hypothesis must be able to accurately predict to become a theory. The AGW hypothesis fails on this count. In fact, the IPCC avoid the problem by saying they are not making predictions, but producing scenarios.

Tim Ball (8/27/08)

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